ES July 3rd 2018

July started off with another retest of 2700 which held this time. Monday’s VAL and POC are both just above 2700 which can be considered strong support after the 4th test.

Price rallied right back to the 2018 year-to-date point of control at around 2728 which is also close to Friday’s value area low. The last few bounces from 2700 have resulted in a rejection at around 2430 which is also Friday’s value area high (last day in June!). The 2018 year-to-date value area high is at 2760. Until the June low at 2794 gets taken out, this could be the formation of a (temporary) bottom…but it should pay off to pay attention to key resistance of last week at around 2743.

We have closed above Monday’s value area high at around 2719, which is a bullish sign and probably my first long entry stab should price find a bit of support there. As long as price remains above this level, the trend remains bullish for me. I will be looking for possible resistance at Monday’s high (2728ish), Friday’s point of control at 2738, Friday’s value area high at 2743, the round 2750 and should that break, the 2018 year-to-date point of control at 2760-65ish.

Should we break back into the value area, I will likely sit on my hands until we retest Monday’s POC and VAL. I might try a short from 2719, but will pay close attention to price action the closer to 2703 we get and potentially lock in profit quickly should we find a bit of support.

I guess it kinda makes sense for price to at least retest key resistance of last week…and that’s right around 2738 - 2743. At the same time, if Asia or early EU session can’t make it past 2728ish, it might be a decent short stab opportunity. I’d keep an eye on Monday’s VAH though.

Could totally see us take a stab at the 2018 YTD VAH at 2760ish too.