ES July 5th 2018

Wednesday was (as expected) a total nothing-burger day…price slooooowly crawled back up to the 2018 YTD POC (Tuesday’s VAL) and that was that. In short, nothing changed much since yesterday. We’re still in the 2700 to 2740 range…smack in the middle actually.

I don’t really have a strong directional bias at the moment. We definitely need to get back above the 2018 YTD POC at around 2724 again to feel good about longs. Keeping an eye on 2727 too just because it’s a cool looking number :D

The last retest of the major resistance around 2743 didn’t make it quite as high as the previous ones…which makes me go mmmhhhhh a bit. Although we also didn’t quite retest the June low at around 2694 and July 4th might skew things a little. The unbroken POC at 2735 and the 2735 to 2743 zone should be a pretty sweet sell area unless bull price action is super strong if we get there. Above we have the round 2750 and 2018 YTD VAH at 2760.

Below, I could see us retest Wednesday’s low (Monday’s VWAP close) at around 2713ish even if we head higher after that. If that level dies, we’re back to watching price action at Monday’s POC, the round 2700, and June’s low. The closer to 2700 and June’s low, the happier I am to buy should price action support it.

Should we kill June’s low, we might head for the 2018 start price at around 2675…or even that unbroken POC at 2662.

The 2018 YTD VAL sits at 2630. Obviously, if we go that low, it’s a clear indication we are winning those trade wars. Believe me!

I’d be happiest about entries on the outskirts of that 2700-2743 range and we are kind of smack in the middle. Not reading too much into the July 4th price action tbh. Even if we head higher, I could totally see us retest Wednesday low first..or the round 2700. At the same time, I could totally see us take another stab at the 2735-2743 resistance zone before heading lower too.

I feel like trying to guess a directional bias after a major US holiday in the middle of a week+ long range is a bit silly. I’ll let price retest the indicated levels and watch price action there…which removes a good chunk of guessing.